Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 0.014630 0.016586 0.018712 0.021196 0.024020 0.027132 0.030824
2025-04-20 0.011781 0.014518 0.017755 0.021869 0.026968 0.033090 0.041017
2025-04-27 0.010201 0.013300 0.017181 0.022406 0.029275 0.038023 0.050052
2025-05-04 0.009147 0.012490 0.016876 0.023066 0.031610 0.043034 0.059544
2025-05-11 0.008054 0.011443 0.016069 0.022871 0.032662 0.046314 0.066916
2025-05-18 0.007248 0.010668 0.015508 0.022889 0.033920 0.049894 0.074961
2025-05-25 0.006485 0.009856 0.014783 0.022551 0.034564 0.052571 0.081851
2025-06-01 0.006013 0.009416 0.014543 0.022880 0.036194 0.056805 0.091462
2025-06-08 0.005492 0.008841 0.014030 0.022713 0.037000 0.059791 0.099328
2025-06-15 0.005215 0.008620 0.014039 0.023359 0.039140 0.065051 0.111371
2025-06-22 0.004684 0.007931 0.013229 0.022573 0.038815 0.066201 0.116533
2025-06-29 0.004309 0.007467 0.012743 0.022278 0.039277 0.068681 0.124188
2025-07-06 0.003871 0.006865 0.011983 0.021456 0.038774 0.069501 0.129066
2025-07-13 0.003724 0.006759 0.012073 0.022152 0.041055 0.075472 0.144026
2025-07-20 0.003566 0.006618 0.012083 0.022696 0.043090 0.081159 0.158991
2025-07-27 0.003439 0.006520 0.012161 0.023365 0.045413 0.087576 0.175990
2025-08-03 0.003207 0.006204 0.011804 0.023167 0.046034 0.090764 0.186834
2025-08-10 0.003023 0.005964 0.011570 0.023185 0.047072 0.094848 0.199887
2025-08-17 0.002813 0.005654 0.011175 0.022842 0.047342 0.097396 0.209943
2025-08-24 0.002696 0.005521 0.011116 0.023176 0.049034 0.103000 0.227106
2025-08-31 0.002535 0.005284 0.010828 0.023007 0.049644 0.106374 0.239673
2025-09-07 0.002468 0.005237 0.010925 0.023662 0.052085 0.113879 0.262279
2025-09-14 0.002268 0.004893 0.010375 0.022864 0.051252 0.114135 0.268191